CDPandasSTUDIO · EST · 2026

— LATEST / NOTES11 posts · Written in Simplified Chinese.

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Long-form notes on what's moving in markets, geopolitics and the AI stack.

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AI Capex Validation Night: When All Four Raise Spending, the Market Punishes Capex Increases for the First Time

All Four Beat Estimates—but Only Two Rise—Markets No Longer Reward Capex with the Same Brush

Hyperscaler CapexAWS TrainiumAnthropic–OpenAI Long-Term ContractsFOMC 8–4 SplitAI Capital Cycle Shift

2026-04-30~2,800 words · ~8 min read

Claude Design: AI companies are no longer building tools—they’re consuming applications.

It’s not about new tools—AI companies’ strategic posture is changing.

Claude DesignApplication-layer下沉AI tool substitutionFigma’s moatAI company strategy

2026-04-29~2,130 words · ~8 min read

Interest rates return to 1997 levels: the institutional end of Japan’s three-decade low-rate paradigm

The three-decade low-rate regime is unwinding; the August 2024 move cleared only two-thirds of positions.

JGByen carry tradeBoJTakashi KurodaBlack Monday

2026-04-28~3,450 words · ~11 min read

CPU comeback: After two years of GPU-dominated narratives, capital markets are pricing x86 for the first time in years

Two years after GPU-dominated narratives, capital markets are looking back at x86 for the first time

CPU shortageAgentic AICPU:GPU ratiox86 repricingAI compute heterogeneity

2026-04-25~2,400 words · ~8 min read

Warships replaced by a reinsurance pool: A 50-year script for Hormuz has been rewritten

P&I clubs collectively withdraw coverage; U.S. DFC’s $40 billion sovereign reinsurance pool steps in

HormuzDFC reinsurance fundP&I ClubOperation Earnest WillChubb

2026-04-24~2,350 words · ~8 min read

Post a survey thread on Xiaohongshu: 'The Entry Certificate for the AI Era'

From GitHub to Xiaohongshu—the Gate Is Not on the 'Learn to Code' Side

DreamooXiaohongshu HackathonBrain-Controlled WheelchairPocket GuitarChic Chic

2026-04-23~5,100 words · ~16 min read

Hormuz in 48 Hours: From S&P Record Highs to U.S. Navy Seizure of a Vessel—Markets Learn a New Kind of Fatigue

Friday’s Euphoric Bets on the Peace Dividend; Sunday’s Gunbarrels Aimed at a Cargo Ship’s Engine Room

HormuzUSS SpruanceOVXIRGCBrent

2026-04-20~2,200 words · ~9 min read

Two Months, from Zero to 57,000 Stars: What’s Behind Hermes Agent?

It’s Not About How Many Tools It Connects To—It’s About Building an Agent That Gets Smarter the More You Use It

Hermes AgentNous ResearchSkill LibraryGEPAOpenClaw

2026-04-16~3,200 words · ~13 min read

Zero-Loss Day: Wall Street’s Profit Engine Shifts Gears

Trading Desks Celebrate; Net Interest Margin Engine Fades. After Volatility Recedes, Whose Second Engine Is Already Warmed Up?

Zero-Loss DayBank of AmericaMorgan StanleyMarkets NIIWealth Management

2026-04-16~2,170 words · ~9 min read

The Harness Debate: The Real Inflection Point for AI Coding Tools Isn’t the Model

In 2025, We Proved AI Could Write Code; In 2026, We Realized the Hard Part Was Learning to Harness It

Harness EngineeringClaude CodeCursorOpenAI CodexVibe Coding

2026-04-14~3,950 words · ~16 min read

Trump–Xi Summit Postponed to May: China’s Leverage Is Shifting During the Wait

Tariff Legal Vacuum, Hormuz Siphoning, Rare-Earth Countdown—Three Cards Flip Simultaneously

IEEPASection 122HormuzRare-Earth Export ControlsMP Materials

2026-04-13~2,000 words · ~8 min read